Got the stomach for this?
Some thoughts on why the Food Safety sector is so interesting - LinkedIn video link here…
Just a quick thought from t2i.
food safety services this time.
AI’s all the rage, so why not see if it can help with the stats.
We did just that - and got some answers too.
Just not the one that really matters.
We spent some time on prompt engineering with Chat GPT, PaLM, Llama and others to see. What you get is an assimilation of all the various White Papers that flood the market at exhibitions/events. It seems a smattering of free headlines from some research organisations too. All good stuff.
The AI reply was - Tah-Dah - market growth of 7-9%.
The one response we didn’t get, was the one you need:
Have you got the stomach for this?
Okay - the stats bit:
A 7-9% range is meaningless. If it’s 7%, the most it can stretch to is 8.05% in reality, not 9. If it’s 9, isn’t it really 10.3? It doesn’t stack up. It's a meaningless range.
In reality, real growth rates here vary from 3% to 14% depending on the sector - so we’re stuck in the old cliche - with one foot in a bucket of ice and the other in a fire, on average you’re fine.
The fact is you have a market that looks like this !
Looks chaotic - because it is…
Fancy a run-up against a 55% profit
global certification brand? Brave.
How about a mass-market former governmental team? Impressive.
Maybe you’d like to arm wrestle three of the biggest private equity teams in the professional services sector currently? (I’ll hold your towel…”)
One thing every sector shares is
They’re all bloody hard work
And you really need to understand the
different economics behind each one
or you’ll get your clock cleaned.
Why?
This is where the three biggies clash
It’s TIC versus GRC versus enterprise software
And there are deep pockets in every sector playing hard ball.
The lessons for armchair generals here are plentiful too.
Wanna see how big brand certification schemes can shoot themselves in the foot - it’s here.
Wanna see how schmoozing with officaldom can kill a good plan, while they do the dirty round the back? Here too.
Wanna see how the pack of wolves can bring down the big bears? Plenty here.
And that’s before you even get to the biggest driver of the market by far.
So what?
A few years back during the ‘eLearning bubble’ one team paid over 10x sales for a small eLearning/LMS team. That’s the sort of stuff that sends the 19th hole apoplectic- as well it should. Then Lockdowns hit - a good and a bad thing for the learning sector.
Now it’s becoming clear what they got,
a £10m sales, 100 staff, 20% profit player.
Worth it? Maybe. It’s a 20 year play and the issue is how sustainable (or growable) that division is.
But that's the point - what are you supposed to do when a new entrant to the market is prepared to pay several times your own turnover just to get a position? It can make the head drop,
but it needn’t. If you have the stomach to deal with these hefty plays.
Head-to-head dealing with that one was actually quite simple.
But they come at you thick and fast.
In my view this is the toughest compliance sector in the UK by far. You either find it exhilarating or terrifying.
The facts and figures you need are all in the t2i market report.
We’re here to help. Be careful out there.